I’ve been through enough market ups and downs to know that the stock market rarely rings a doorbell before it drops. It just sort of barges in, knocks over the houseplants, and leaves you staring at your retirement accounts as if they’ve personally betrayed you. And while no one, not even the loudest financial “guru” on YouTube (you know who they are), knows exactly when a crash will hit, there are certain signs that always seem to show up before things get messy. Over the years, I’ve learned to recognize these hints, and I’ve seen how being aware of them helps retirees stay calm, prepared, and far less likely to make panicked decisions.

Now let me say this upfront. Market crashes are a normal part of investing. They feel like root canals without anesthesia, but they’re normal. What gets retirees in trouble is not the crash itself, but the decisions they make because of fear or surprise. If we can spot the warning signs early enough, then we don’t react based on panic, we react based on preparation. And that, my friend, is a far more profitable way to live out your retirement years.

One of the first signs that always makes me raise an eyebrow is when the market seems to be going up for no real reason. You’ve probably seen this lately. Stocks climb day after day, headlines get giddy, and your neighbor starts quoting Warren Buffett as if he’s on the man’s personal payroll. When everything is rising steadily even though the underlying economy is looking shaky, that’s a red flag. I’m not talking about normal optimism or a good earnings season, I’m talking about the kind of “this feels too easy” movement that almost dares gravity to do its job. Markets can stay irrational longer than any of us expect, but they can’t stay that way forever, and historically these periods of unexplained growth tend to be followed by correction.

Another big one is when everyday investors develop what I like to call “financial invincibility syndrome.” I’ve watched this unfold several times, and it’s always the same pattern. People start bragging about their investment wins, even the ones who never cared about the stock market before. Hot stock tips show up in places they absolutely do not belong, like dental offices or bingo halls. Folks begin convincing themselves that risk has magically evaporated, and they start buying things based on excitement rather than fundamentals. When someone tells me they feel like the market can only go up, I immediately hear alarm bells. Historically, when everyone becomes convinced that stocks are a guaranteed path to easy money, the market tends to remind us that guarantees do not exist.

I also pay very close attention to corporate earnings. You don’t need to be a financial analyst to see when companies are starting to struggle. It usually begins quietly. A big company reports weaker profits, then a few more follow, then layoffs begin to trickle in. If household names are struggling to stay profitable, that is usually a sign that the economy is slowing beneath the surface. Markets may continue climbing for a while, but cracks in corporate performance often foreshadow much deeper weaknesses. I have seen retirees lose a lot of money by believing the headlines that “everything is fine” while the underlying numbers were clearly saying otherwise.

Another sign that always makes me tighten my seatbelt is when interest rates are rising quickly. I know, interest rates may not be the most exciting thing in the world, although if they ever host the Olympics for dull topics, they’re a strong contender for gold. Yet interest rates are enormously important to the market. When borrowing becomes more expensive, companies struggle to grow, consumers slow their spending, and the overall financial system begins to tighten. Historically, rapid interest rate hikes have preceded many market downturns. It’s not automatic, but it is definitely a pattern worth watching. When rates rise too fast, and the economy can’t absorb the shock, the market has a way of expressing its displeasure.

Speaking of consumer behavior, that’s another sign that can predict a downturn. When people start cutting back on discretionary spending, it often means they’re feeling financial pressure before the market fully reflects it. This is why I always pay attention to what friends are saying about travel, home repairs, or even eating out. If people start tightening their belts because things are feeling “a little off,” that’s meaningful information. Consumer spending makes up a huge portion of the economy. When the average retiree begins to hesitate before purchasing something, the rest of the financial system is usually feeling it too. This financial stress can build up over time too.

Now let’s talk about volatility. When the market starts swinging wildly from one day to the next, especially without any major news events, that’s often the financial equivalent of a thunderstorm forming on the horizon. A steady, predictable market is usually a healthy one, but a jittery, unpredictable market is often a warning that something underneath is beginning to crack. It doesn’t necessarily mean a crash is coming, but it does mean the market is stressed, and stressed systems don’t stay stable forever.

One of the more subtle signs that I monitor is how the bond market behaves. I know, bonds are another candidate for the Dull Topic Olympics, but I promise they matter. When long-term bond yields fall below short-term ones, something called a yield curve inversion, it tends to indicate that investors are worried about the future. This inversion has predicted most major recessions since the 1950s, and while it’s not perfect, it’s far too reliable to be ignored. The bond market is made up of the least excitable people on Earth, so when even they start panicking, I pay attention.

Another warning sign is when household debt begins to rise too quickly. I’m talking about credit cards, auto loans, personal loans, and other forms of debt that people usually turn to when they feel financially strained. When debt starts increasing faster than income, it often means people are struggling to maintain their lifestyle, and that kind of stress can ripple through the economy. Retirees feel it too, especially when inflation remains high and fixed incomes don’t stretch as far as they used to. When the average household is financially stretched, the market becomes far more fragile.

What really spooks me, though, is when the market starts ignoring bad news. If economic reports come in weak, corporate earnings fall, geopolitical tensions rise, and yet the market keeps climbing, that’s not confidence, that’s denial. And denial in the stock market doesn’t last. This kind of behavior usually means that investors are caught up in momentum rather than fundamentals, which is exactly the kind of environment where a sudden crash becomes much more likely.

One more sign that deserves mention is when financial optimism becomes, well, a little too optimistic. When everyone on television starts predicting endless growth, when headlines insist that the market is “healthier than ever,” and when people assume that crashes are relics of the past, I get nervous. Excessive optimism has historically been one of the most reliable precursors to market downturns. The market loves proving people wrong, and it especially loves proving overly enthusiastic people wrong.

The key thing I always remind retirees is that spotting these signs shouldn’t lead to fear, it should lead to preparation. Panicking never helps anyone. Preparation, on the other hand, helps everyone. If you see some of these warning signs appearing at the same time, that’s when you tighten up your budget a little, rebalance your portfolio, avoid major new risks, and keep enough cash on hand to ride out volatility. You don’t need to be perfect, you don’t need to be clairvoyant, and you certainly don’t need to sell everything and hide in a bunker. You just need to stay observant and flexible, which is something retirees are already quite good at because life has taught us how to adapt.

I’ve lived long enough to know that markets recover, confidence returns, and cycles repeat. Crashes aren’t punishments, they’re events, and if you see them coming, even vaguely, they stop being frightening and start being manageable. And at this stage in life, I think we all prefer manageable over dramatic.

So the next time the market feels a little shaky or the news seems a little too cheerful, remember these signs and trust your instincts. Retirement is about peace of mind, not panic. And knowing what to look for keeps you one step ahead of the next big market surprise, which means you can keep focusing on the things that make retirement worth enjoying, like family, hobbies, travel, or avoiding early morning alarms forever.

Don’t wait until it’s too late, get your financial house in order today!

Happy retirement planning!